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(日本银行)

The 10-year Treasury bill (^TNX) is bouncing back off recent lows as worries over a global slowdown and a fight over China’s yuan start to ease. But don’t expect interest rates to rise much further in this environment, says former Federal Reserve insider Vincent Reinhart. In fact, the U.S. economy could soon look a lot more like Japan’s.

随着对全球经济放缓和人民币汇率之争的担忧开始缓解,10年期美国国债正从近期低点反弹。但前美联储内部人士文森特 莱因哈特说,在这种环境下,别指望利率会进一步大幅上升。事实上,美国经济可能很快就会变得像日本经济一样。

“In an environment in which the market’s not growing, it’s hard to see where capital gets a return,” Reinhart, the chief economist and macro strategist at Mellon, told Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade. “We have $15 trillion of sovereign debt around the world trading at negative rates, that’s pretty compelling. If you have that many alternatives that look so unattractive, it means capital is coming into the U.S. and pulling down our rates.”

“在市场没有增长的环境下,很难看到资本能从哪里得到回报。”梅隆银行首席经济学家兼宏观策略师莱因哈特在接受雅虎财经的第一交易采访时表示。“我们有15万亿美元的主权债务在世界各地以负利率交易,这非常值得关注。如果你有那么多看起来毫无吸引力的选择,那就意味着资本正在涌入美国,并拉低我们的利率。”



The U.S. isn’t yet seeing a population decline, but the latest Census figures show population growth last year fell to its lowest level since 1937. Productivity remains strong, coming in at 3.4% in the first quarter of 2019, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

美国还没有出现人口下降,但最新的人口普查数据显示,去年的人口增长降至1937年以来的最低水平。美国劳工统计局的数据显示,劳动生产率依然强劲,2019年第一季度为3.4%。

Still, Reinhart says the demographic shifts in the U.S. signal a Japan-like economic environment “seems to be where the U.S. is headed.”

不过,莱因哈特说,美国人口结构的变化表明,类似日本的经济环境“似乎是美国发展的方向”。